Oct 10, 2026
Visible inventory: 13,100 tonnes. Less than two weeks of global consumption cover. The Man Maw restart was priced as solved while the warehouse was quietly draining.
Oct 9, 2026
127,750 tonnes of on-warrant stock. Roughly three days of global cover. Mostly sitting in the wrong hemisphere.
Oct 7, 2026
One ticker. Two commodities. A surplus in one grade and a shortage in another don't average out — they just hide from each other.
Oct 6, 2026
Six months of backed-up allocations hit the dock in eight weeks. The annual cap didn't change. The 10,700-tonne deficit didn't change. The market changed its mind about both.
Oct 5, 2026
TC/RCs settled at zero for the first time in smelting history. Spot hit -$221.89/dmt on September 18. The midstream layer is now paying miners to process their own concentrate. No one designed a business model for this.
Oct 3, 2026
Sell-side says oversupply. China is absorbing 35,000–40,000 tonnes domestically through grid-scale batteries. Russia's supply is sanctioned. South Africa's flagship producer faces winding-up. The price is the last thing to know.
Oct 2, 2026
Announcement No. 10 — molybdenum, tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium — has been active since February 4, 2025. Checked the MOFCOM registry three times this week. Still valid.
Oct 1, 2026
Five consecutive annual deficits, the only US mine idle, and managed money still piled on the short side reading an EV thesis that hasn't looked at a loading dock in three years.
Sep 29, 2026
Four smelters. Twelve percent domestic coverage. A tariff cut that doesn't add a single tonne. The fire isn't out — they're staring at the price tag and ignoring the warehouse.
Sep 28, 2026
Ore on five continents, HPMSM refining in one country at 90–96% share, and BYD just tilted the demand curve. Here's where the machine fails and why nobody on the trading floor has looked at it yet.
Sep 26, 2026
Ras Laffan makes roughly a third of the world's helium as a byproduct of LNG processing. The LNG stopped in March. The helium went with it. What came next is the part the financial press didn't follow.
Sep 25, 2026
Two Japanese plants supply roughly a quarter of the world's WF6 — the gas that deposits tungsten inside every advanced chip on earth. China cut off their feedstock. Your AI capex model has no line item for this.
