Oct 5, 2026
TC/RCs settled at zero for the first time in smelting history. Spot hit -$221.89/dmt on September 18. The midstream layer is now paying miners to process their own concentrate. No one designed a business model for this.
Oct 3, 2026
Sell-side says oversupply. China is absorbing 35,000–40,000 tonnes domestically through grid-scale batteries. Russia's supply is sanctioned. South Africa's flagship producer faces winding-up. The price is the last thing to know.
Oct 2, 2026
Announcement No. 10 — molybdenum, tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium — has been active since February 4, 2025. Checked the MOFCOM registry three times this week. Still valid.
Oct 1, 2026
Five consecutive annual deficits, the only US mine idle, and managed money still piled on the short side reading an EV thesis that hasn't looked at a loading dock in three years.
Sep 29, 2026
Four smelters. Twelve percent domestic coverage. A tariff cut that doesn't add a single tonne. The fire isn't out — they're staring at the price tag and ignoring the warehouse.
Sep 28, 2026
Ore on five continents, HPMSM refining in one country at 90–96% share, and BYD just tilted the demand curve. Here's where the machine fails and why nobody on the trading floor has looked at it yet.
Sep 26, 2026
Ras Laffan makes roughly a third of the world's helium as a byproduct of LNG processing. The LNG stopped in March. The helium went with it. What came next is the part the financial press didn't follow.
Sep 25, 2026
Two Japanese plants supply roughly a quarter of the world's WF6 — the gas that deposits tungsten inside every advanced chip on earth. China cut off their feedstock. Your AI capex model has no line item for this.
Sep 24, 2026
China shipped 512 tonnes of NdFeB magnets to the US in August — down 21% from July, timed to land days before the summit. The customs printout communicates more than the communiqué will.
Sep 22, 2026
China controls 98% of graphitization capacity. The U.S. mined zero tonnes of natural graphite in 2024. Three regulatory deadlines are converging before the year ends.
Sep 21, 2026
Injection season is closed. The tank logged 69.31% against an 84% seasonal average. Withdrawal begins now, and there is no makeup period — not this year.
Sep 19, 2026
Sixty-nine days until the export suspension un-suspends itself. The market already called it a resolution. The licensing regime and military end-user clause never moved.
