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Tearing apart the DRC cobalt pricing disconnect

May 26, 2026

Tearing apart the DRC cobalt pricing disconnect

The overhang everyone is bearish on is half the size they think. The other half is collateral. And collateral doesn't ship.

Tearing apart the Russian palladium tariff trap

May 25, 2026

Tearing apart the Russian palladium tariff trap

The tariff protects a mine that needs a higher price to survive. The higher price only arrives if the tariff works. The tariff only works if there's no alternative supply. There is no alternative supply. Welcome to the loop.

Tearing apart the Chinese aluminum power curtailment

May 22, 2026

Tearing apart the Chinese aluminum power curtailment

The algorithms see a price drifting lower and short more metal. They don't check reservoir levels in Yunnan. They have never, to my knowledge, filed a freedom of information request with the National Energy Administration.

Tearing apart the sulphuric acid leaching pipeline

May 21, 2026

Tearing apart the sulphuric acid leaching pipeline

The market is pricing a shipping lane. The mines are pricing a chemistry problem. Those two things resolve on completely different timescales.

Tearing apart the uranium utility contracting gap

May 20, 2026

Tearing apart the uranium utility contracting gap

The utilities spent thirteen years not buying uranium because the market was oversupplied. The market is no longer oversupplied. The utilities are still not buying fast enough. At some point the gap between those two facts becomes a physical problem, not a financial one.

Tearing apart the tin solder supply chain

May 19, 2026

Tearing apart the tin solder supply chain

The machines soldering the AI revolution together need tin. The tin is stuck behind a suspended mining review in a territory that is not a country, run by an army that answers to nobody who attends Davos.

Tearing apart Indonesia's nickel quota machine

May 18, 2026

Tearing apart Indonesia's nickel quota machine

The paper market is pricing a quota cut. The physical market is pricing a cost floor that nobody has properly mapped yet.

Tearing apart the Simandou supply overhang

May 15, 2026

Tearing apart the Simandou supply overhang

The market is pricing Simandou as a supply addition. It should be pricing it as a product substitution. Those are not the same trade.

Tearing apart the Mont Belvieu NGL export bottleneck

May 14, 2026

Tearing apart the Mont Belvieu NGL export bottleneck

The storage report is telling you the export machine is constipated. The fractionation data is telling you the laxative isn't coming. The market is reading neither.

Tearing apart the Hard Red Winter wheat collapse

May 13, 2026

Tearing apart the Hard Red Winter wheat collapse

The tour is reading the fields. The WASDE is reading May 1 surveys. Those two numbers will meet in June, and one of them will have to move.

Tearing apart the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

May 12, 2026

Tearing apart the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

The market is pricing the ceasefire. The SPR math is pricing the absence of one.

Tearing apart the oil market's split personality

May 11, 2026

Tearing apart the oil market's split personality

The futures market is betting on a resolution timeline. The refinery operators in Singapore are betting on tank levels. These are not the same bet.

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