The Daily Breakdown Publications

Jun 5, 2026

Tearing apart the Transnet manganese export corridor collapse

The futures market is pricing a Chinese property slowdown. The Port Elizabeth anchorage is pricing a supply cut-off. These are different problems with different clocks, and right now only one of them is measurable at the loading dock.

Jun 4, 2026

Tearing apart the Canadian potash terminal choke point

The market is pricing Belarus as the potash story of 2026. The actual potash story of 2026 is a dock in Delta, B.C. that has never exported a tonne of fertilizer in its life, scheduled to go live at the same time as the biggest new mine in a generation.

Jun 3, 2026

Tearing apart the Brazilian iron ore tailings dam inspection freeze

The analysts are modelling the regulator's enforcement calendar. The actual shutdown trigger is the insurance clause, and it doesn't care about the calendar. It fires on the date of the certification lapse.

Jun 2, 2026

Tearing apart the Zambia smelter energy crisis

The physical copper market is tightening from a direction that none of the flow models point at. The machines are watching Chile. The cathode is not coming from Chile.

Jun 1, 2026

Tearing apart the Bayan Obo rare earth export quota freeze

Beijing isn't blocking the export. It's making you ask nicely, wait six weeks, and fill out a form that takes a specialist to interpret — and then doing it again next quarter.

May 29, 2026

Tearing apart the Atacama lithium brine water rights crisis

The court is reading the aquifer data. The futures market is reading EV sales reports. Those two documents do not agree with each other, and one of them is going to have to update.

May 28, 2026

Tearing apart the Mozambique LNG restart and Europe's storage fill clock

The market is pricing a September cargo from a train that has never been cold-started after five years of coastal layup. The operators have run the inspections. They have not run the train.

May 27, 2026

Tearing apart the COMEX silver registered stock drain

The eligible inventory looks like a buffer. Some of it is. The rest is a museum exhibit — available for viewing, not for purchase.

May 26, 2026

Tearing apart the DRC cobalt pricing disconnect

The overhang everyone is bearish on is half the size they think. The other half is collateral. And collateral doesn't ship.

May 25, 2026

Tearing apart the Russian palladium tariff trap

The tariff protects a mine that needs a higher price to survive. The higher price only arrives if the tariff works. The tariff only works if there's no alternative supply. There is no alternative supply. Welcome to the loop.

May 22, 2026

Tearing apart the Chinese aluminum power curtailment

The algorithms see a price drifting lower and short more metal. They don't check reservoir levels in Yunnan. They have never, to my knowledge, filed a freedom of information request with the National Energy Administration.

May 21, 2026

Tearing apart the sulphuric acid leaching pipeline

The market is pricing a shipping lane. The mines are pricing a chemistry problem. Those two things resolve on completely different timescales.