The Daily Breakdown Publications

Sep 3, 2026

Tearing apart the titanium sponge chokepoint

The US built the most titanium-hungry aircraft fleet in history — 19 tonnes per 787, north of 20 per F-35 — then closed the last domestic sponge plant in 2024. Imports: 44,000 tonnes a year. Domestic production: zero.

Sep 2, 2026

Tearing apart the helium chokepoint

Every EUV scanner, every HBM stack, every 3nm wafer needs it. No substitute exists. One facility complex supplied a third of global output. It took a missile in March and hasn't moved product since.

Sep 1, 2026

Tearing apart the molybdenum byproduct trap

90% of Western supply is a copper mining accident. The price signal doesn't reach the decision-maker — and the decision-maker is digging for something else.

Aug 31, 2026

Tearing apart the lithium tax mirage

China's 2% battery levy exempts sodium-ion and solid-state through 2028. That's not a glut signal — it's the consolidation playbook Beijing ran on steel and solar, and it doesn't touch a demand number that just printed 45% above the largest producer's own forecast range.

Aug 29, 2026

Tearing apart the natural rubber supply chain

Indonesia's smallholders are converting to oil palm because it pays more and doesn't require daily tapping. Once those trees are felled, the land is gone from rubber supply for 25 to 30 years. The models assumed the plantations would still be there.

Aug 28, 2026

Tearing apart the graphite anode bottleneck

76 days until China's suspension of graphite export controls expires. The US hasn't mined a tonne since 1989. The bridge covering the gap handles about 2% of the crossing.

Aug 27, 2026

Tearing apart the sulphate of potash supply chain

The Mannheim process needs sulfuric acid. Sulfuric acid needs elemental sulfur. Half the world's sulfur transits the Strait of Hormuz. MOP stays fine. SOP doesn't.

Aug 25, 2026

Tearing apart the coffee delivery chain

189.7 million bags on the USDA forecast sheet. Roughly two days of global supply on the exchange floor. The gap between those two numbers is where the actual story lives.

Aug 24, 2026

Tearing apart the uranium fuel chain

Three Western conversion facilities stand between yellowcake and a reactor. One just lost 29% of its annual output. The rest is arithmetic the spot price hasn't caught up to.

Aug 22, 2026

Tearing apart the cocoa harvest

COCOBOD projects a 27–40% production drop for 2026/27. The surplus is real — and it's last year's.

Aug 20, 2026

Tearing apart the rare earth magnet supply chain

Yttrium shipments to the U.S. are down 95% — during the truce. That is what resolved looks like from the loading dock.

Aug 19, 2026

Tearing apart the sulfuric acid chokepoint

270 million tonnes consumed annually — no stockpile possible, no substitute, no tap to turn on. Two valves closed at the same time and the physical market is already saying so.