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Tearing apart the molybdenum byproduct trap

Jun 23, 2026

Tearing apart the molybdenum byproduct trap

Molybdenum can't tell the market it needs more supply. The copper mines control that answer, and right now the copper mines have their own problems.

Tearing apart the yen carry trade's jammed pressure valve

Jun 22, 2026

Tearing apart the yen carry trade's jammed pressure valve

The BOJ is hiking rates into a carry trade it can't size, funded by a currency it can't stabilize, while buying the bonds it's supposedly tightening against. That's not policy normalization. That's three levers pulling in different directions.

Tearing apart the Fugu magnesium chokepoint

Jun 20, 2026

Tearing apart the Fugu magnesium chokepoint

The price is low because the dependency is complete. When the dependency is complete, the price is no longer a market signal. It's a policy lever.

Tearing apart the iridium electrolyzer trap

Jun 18, 2026

Tearing apart the iridium electrolyzer trap

The green hydrogen roadmap is built on a metal that the entire planet produces in a year what a single large electrolyzer project consumes in a quarter. The engineers have a plan. The geology does not care about the plan.

Tearing apart the platinum recycling trap

Jun 17, 2026

Tearing apart the platinum recycling trap

The recycling narrative assumes the pipeline is elastic. It assumes the kinks are price-sensitive and will resolve given a high enough platinum price. Some of them are. The working capital problem and the refiner concentration problem are not.

Tearing apart the DRC cobalt quota expiry trap

Jun 16, 2026

Tearing apart the DRC cobalt quota expiry trap

The smelters told Fastmarkets the Q2 quota looks large from a policy perspective. They also said don't be too optimistic in practice. Those two sentences are the whole trade.

Tearing apart the tungsten APT chokepoint

Jun 15, 2026

Tearing apart the tungsten APT chokepoint

The recycling valve doesn't exist in the West. The forward-buying valve has already been pulled. The only valve left is the one Beijing controls.

Tearing apart the graphite anode qualification trap

Jun 13, 2026

Tearing apart the graphite anode qualification trap

The market diversified the part of the supply chain that shows up in press releases. It did nothing about the part that runs on Chinese furnaces and expires in November.

Tearing apart the tin solder supply crunch

Jun 11, 2026

Tearing apart the tin solder supply crunch

The AI analysts are writing about tin solder. The UWSA generals in Wa State are deciding how much of it actually ships. These are different conversations happening in different languages and nobody is translating between them.

Tearing apart the antimony trioxide refining chokepoint

Jun 10, 2026

Tearing apart the antimony trioxide refining chokepoint

The market diversified the part that has a price. It did nothing about the part that has a chokepoint.

Tearing apart the Permian Basin gas price trap

Jun 9, 2026

Tearing apart the Permian Basin gas price trap

The United States is simultaneously paying to dispose of natural gas in West Texas and paying premium prices to import it on the other end of the pipeline system. The distance between those two facts is a construction schedule.

Tearing apart the Western zinc smelter collapse

Jun 8, 2026

Tearing apart the Western zinc smelter collapse

The surplus thesis was bulletproof six months ago. The ILZSG has just fired three hundred thousand bullets through it.

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